What interesting times. I honestly never thought I'd see the UN, with France's agreement, passing resolutions against Syria. I knew that the Iraq invasion and move - slow though it may be - to an at least freer society would be paying dividends across the region, but I didn't imagine that they would pay off so soon. A popular uprising in Lebanon and Syria's puppets showing a little independence? Surprising.

Elections in Egypt are another positive sign, although if Mubarak were serious, he'd have opened his society up first and allowed a little freedom of speech and association for a few years to give the secular alternatives to the religious parties a chance to get organized. He should be stirring the soup of the free market of ideas and letting it stew a bit instead of serving it up before its time.

Let's pause to take a look at this for a moment. We needed multi-year occupations in Germany and Japan following World War 2 because that was a total war against an entire civilization. Victory meant we were re-shaping their societies - particularly Japanese society - from the ground-up. No more feudal caste system, no more divine Emperor. We could stay and do the job right, seeding and prepping the ground for however many years it took until the conditions were right so that those Fear Societies were ready to be Free Societies. We could take our time in doing so because we faced no international pressure, and no pressure from international terror groups hurrying the job.

The situation in Iraq, for instance, is different. The war was not total, and not seen as being against the population itself. This was, after all, a liberation, not a conquest. We have not been there with the intention of re-shaping Iraqi society from the foundation - merely removing the inhibitor - the regime - and allowing the society to flourish. Remember that we were told before the war that Iraq's strong middle-class and its urbanized and secular-leaning population had blunted tribalism and Islamism sufficiently to make Iraq a fertile ground for democratization without much prepping. Problems with international diplomatic pressure and terrorism have also caused problems for the reconstruction. So, essential to getting Iraq going was to hold elections as soon as possible while American firepower coupled with as much Iraqi internal desire and organization as could be mustered jump-started and forced the existence of as much of a Free Society as possible for long enough to hold elections and get the Iraqi people themselves even more involved - involved and on board, their own society and what institutions that didn't rely on the old regime still intact.

January 30th was an earthquake, and the waves are sweeping the Middle East.

Back to Egypt. So Mubarak is feeling the pressure. As I said, if he were serious, he'd start loosening up his society first in preparation for an election at some future date. The First Amendment to the US Constitution is the sine qua non of American democracy. Without freedom of speech, association and the press - there is nothing. I'm sure he'd rather have the kind of faux democracy they have in places like Iran - where free exchange of ideas is impossible, association is curtailed and the current regime vets the candidates. There is a legitimate concern in places like Egypt that freedom will bring to power one man, one vote, one time-style Islamist forces. The religious and terror-front groups have an organizational head-start, after all. That's why freedom is so important in advance of regime-change. That difference in head-start must be mitigated.

But he also knows that once unleashed, freedom may gather momentum and be impossible to control. Elections envisioned for five or even ten years down the road may be demanded for far sooner, and that is a scary proposition for any Arab strongman.

Take a look at what's happening in Lebanon. Once upon a time, Syria would have been able to play by Hama Rules, they would have been able to crack down on and smash a nascent freedom movement like what we're seeing. But now the world is watching. Now the United States is sitting on their doorstep in Iraq, waiting for Assad to give them an excuse and make a false-move. Iraqis, suddenly free of the dictator and none-too-pleased with Syria's support for the terrorist murder-spree plaguing their country aren't likely to protest any action. Suddenly, playing the distraction game of blaming Zionists for the region's ills isn't going to work. Syria's feet are being held to the fire. Conditions have completely changed and a space has been created. Just as life has a tendency to fill any gaps it can find in an ecosystem that can possibly support it, so freedom finds any space - no matter how tenuous - to sink its roots and grow.

Boston Globe: Protests force out Lebanon's government

Of course, terror nations always behave true to form - that's why they are always a danger. Syria still wants to use the entire nation of Lebanon as a hostage to the last.

Update: I think Stephen Pollard has it just exactly right...here.

Posted by Solomon at 1:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
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