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Monday, February 7, 2005

As suspected, there's a little bit more to the story from the NY Times posted below about Sistani & Co. flexing their muscles.

From IRAQ THE MODEL:

...Anyway, back to the main subject and the alleged statement; I chose to wait until the next news hour and of course until I chill out a little bit after the disturbing news and then I heard this update on the story "Haider Al-Khaffaf, a senior Sistani's aide says that no such statement was released". And going back to Friday's news, another senior aide of Sistani said from Kuwait that "the future constitution of the country is an issue that is left for the National Assembly to deal with".

Away from false statements and true statements, let's go back to similar situations that took place not far ago; Dweller has given what I consider a very good example, she mentioned last year's resolution 137 issue which was called for by the head of the SCIRI (who's considered a strong candidate for the PM position in the coming government as he's heading the list of the Iraqi United Alliance). But even at that time, when the GC was partially in charge, the role of the people and the other members of the GC was so evident in refuting the resolution in question and thus the Islamists failed to pass the law.

Another important thing I'd like to point out here is that Ayatollah Sistani played the role of a 'safety valve' in Iraq, his wisdom has helped control the anger of the masses in more in an instance an I don't expect him to ruin what has been built so far and push the country into a civil war.

On the other hand, there are rules and regulations that govern the writing of the constitution and these were agreed on by almost everyone (with a few reservations though) but there is a general agreement on these rules, and anyway, passing any legislation will require the approval of 2 thirds of the assembly's members.
Even though the Alliance list seems to be winning a similar majority of the seats now but the future as I expect is hiding a lot of surprises; will the ten or fifteen parties that stood united through out the electoral process keep the same unity when their different interests and agendas contradict each other?? Will a secular Turcoman member of the Assembly for example help Al-Hakim pass such laws just because they were allies during the elections? From what I see, I think the answer is NO...

As I said below: "This is going to fill the next phase of the doom and gloom narrative way too conveniently to trust almost anyone's ability to report with real perspective and proportion. How serious is the threat? You won't find out from reading the NYT without a very serious and sophisticated filter in place."

Part of that filter is going to be built by listening to what the Iraqis themselves tell us.

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