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Monday, January 10, 2005

That's what Danny Rubenstein is calling Abu Mazen - man of a thousand question marks.

Haaretz: Analysis: An Arafat in a suit who means business

A storekeeper in Ramallah was asked by an interviewer from one of the Gulf state stations whom he intended to vote for. "For the good of my business, I should vote for Abu Mazen. But for the sake of my national struggle, I thought I would vote for Dr. Barghouti."

To judge from the exit polls published Sunday night, business won out. A majority of more than 60 percent of people voting for the Palestinian Authority chairman chose Fatah candidate Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), one of whose election slogans was to put a stop to the "military intifada" - or, as we would put it, to terror attacks.

Mustafa Barghouti, the candidate of the left who linked himself to the Palestinian opposition groups that are calling for a continuation of the violence, lost...

It's sit and watch time for the rest of us as we see what path Mazen machette's for himself, now that he's won the "election," such as they were. As Jeff Jacoby quotes from the New York Sun:

..."One of the reasons none of the three candidates has received much support is intimidation by the PA [Palestinian Authority]. `People are afraid to be seen even reading their campaign literature,' says one Palestinian. . . . The message that the people have received from various leaders of the PA is that if they vote for a candidate other than Mr. Abbas, they will either lose jobs they already have in the PA or will not be hired by the PA in the future. Since the PA is the largest employer in the West Bank and Gaza, the threat carries a great deal of weight.

"Physical intimidation has also played a role. . . . On Wednesday, shots were fired at [candidate Bassam el] Salhi's offices in Ramallah . . . ."...

Read the rest of the piece for more of Jacby's own reality-based assessment.

I'm not an optimist, and I'm not a pessimist (well, OK, maybe a little bit the pessimist). Right now, as so often, I'm a watcher. I see that the Al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigade decided to murder last night, for instance:

Ha'Aretz: Soldier killed, three hurt near Nablus:

...Sergeant Yossi Atiya, 21, of Petah Tikva, was killed close to 3:30 P.M. on Friday and three soldiers were wounded, one of them seriously, in the shooting. An Israeli civilian was lightly injured in the incident.

Armed with Kalashnikov rifles, the two gunmen parked near the Migdalim settlement and waited at the roadside, signaling to Israeli cars to slow down, eyewitnesses said. Some said the two were in IDF uniform, but this has not been confirmed.

First, they shot at a car driving west. The driver was lightly wounded but continued driving until he reached an IDF barricade at the Tapuah junction and reported the attack. The assailants opened fire at another car carrying four IDF soldiers on leave. Atiya, a paratrooper, was fatally wounded in the head. The other three soldiers were also wounded, one seriously and two lightly to moderately. One of them got out of the car and shot back at the gunmen, but they fled from the site unhurt...

I am hopeful when I see headlines like this:

LA Times: U.S. Wary Until New Palestinian Leader Curbs Militias' Influence

WASHINGTON — Although Bush administration officials see the Palestinian election as an important opportunity to work toward Middle East peace, they will move cautiously until they are convinced that the new president can curb extremist violence, State Department officials said.

The United States will focus its immediate efforts on supporting the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip planned for this summer, officials said. The U.S. may also resume providing direct aid to the impoverished area and training for Palestinian security forces.

"We are not going to stand by and let this government fail," a State Department official said. "Additional assistance will certainly be considered."

But Washington still wants progress from the new Palestinian Authority government in taming the activities of the militant organizations Hamas and Islamic Jihad, even if the post of president goes to U.S. favorite Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen...

...U.S. officials remain wary because of suspicions that aid to the Palestinian Authority was misused and that some Palestinian security troops trained by the U.S. ended up fighting alongside the extremists.

"Don't look for us to be opening up the floodgates of U.S. assistance if there is still a risk that that aid is going to be funneled off toward those who support violence," the State Department official said.

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