Is Abbas's call for "an end to the militarization of the intifada" significant? Yes. It's been known that this was Abbas's position for some time, and it's certainly positive that he said it publicly in the Arab press - Arafat being notorious for telling Western audiences what they wanted to hear, but then brazenly going back on it in private or in Arabic. That act was starting to wear thin in the end though. The world of mass-communication - and especially the internet - was bringing the pressure to bear. No more Peace in English and War in Arabic.

Now Abbas may have the best of intentions ("best" being a relative term), but let's not get carried away. Roadblocks, checkpoints and targeted assassinations don't exist as some sort of Israeli play activity. They're there to save Israeli lives, and they'll stay there as long as those lives are threatened.

With the weak central state authority and the multitude of armed gangs, each with their own motivations, Israeli lives will continue to be threatened, regardless of even Abbas's best efforts, for some time now. (Hamas has already rejected the call to lay down their arms, of course.) That means, with continued attacks against Israelis, and the inevitable efforts of Israel to defend its citizens, there will be no end of excuses for failure.

Not that they will need any real excuse, when they can just make one up. Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon was certified complete by the UN years ago, but Hizballah uses the excuse of Israel's occupation of the "Shabba Farms" area as an excuse to keep up the fight and wrap their rhetoric of "occupation" around. (Shabba Farms are an area even the UN says belongs to Syria and who's final ownership must be negotiated with them, but Hizballah claims is a part of Lebanon.)

In order for this thing to work, a whole lot of things are going to need to come together - including pressure on the Syrians to keep the Hamas leadership they host in check (let them come and live in Gaza if they think continuing the fight is so great), allowing the Israelis to do what they need to do to keep their citizens safe while at the same time doing some of Abbas's dirty work for him by making the bad-guys hurt, and setting out real rewards and punishments for Abbas - something only the USA can do seriously as Europe, Russia and the UN can never be trusted to actually hold the Palestinian Arabs responsible for anything.

As an example, an early indicator of Abbas's seriousness will be whether the ongoing toning-down of incitement on PA TV continues. In the decidedly un-free society that is the Palestinian Authority, the media is something directly under the control of Abbas himself. Will he use his power to hold to the new Peace-line - indoctrinating the kids and their parents in the need for co-existence and reconciliation? It will certainly be one of the first indicators of the seriousness of any Abbas effort. Will he use the airwaves and print to get the people on board with his efforts, or will he play the double-game of pantomiming peace while he's "undermined" in public so he can simply throw up his hands and say, "Well, I tried...but the Israelis...they were too much."

Should Abbas be elected to the Presidency - as looks increasingly likely - he's going to need to sort out what's within his power and purview and what isn't, and he's going to have to exert serious energy into forging Palestinian society to follow his lead. No more excuses about what the Israelis are doing. He knows the score. He knows what the Israelis are about and he still wants the job. Either he's taking it with the intention of being serious about peace - difficulties and all - or he should be viewed as another in a long line terrorists and dealt with appropriately*.

Oh, and somewhere in there he might consider making a gesture to Uncle Sam by doing something about turning over the guys who murdered three of our citizens over a year ago. Those guys were there to give out Fulbright Scholarships...and terrorists lay in wait for them and blew them up. He could make an example of them if he really wanted to.

[*I chose the word "appropriately" rather than "accordingly" intentionally. "Accordingly," to me, implies "summarily," as though once it's clear Abbas isn't serious he should be dealt with as all terrorists should be - with a large object dropped on their heads. There will be deeper political considerations at play, however - as, sadly, with Arafat - so "appropriately" seems to imply a bit more of an aspect of diplomatic consideration. It will be important to recognize him for what he is at that point and at least no longer deceive ourselves, though.]