Monday, November 29, 2004


Michael Ledeen continues to call for regime change in the face of a tidal-wave of appeasement.

Michael Ledeen: Europe’s Ritual Dance, The Western counterpart of Iran’s deception.

...wishful thinking is an important part of foreign policy. The idea that "we don't need to do anything, because so-and-so will do our dirty work for us" has in fact been central to Western strategy in the Middle East for quite a while. For example, it was practiced by Bush the Elder in 1991 at the end of Desert Storm, when the president openly mused that it would be simply wonderful if the Kurds and Shiites overthrew Saddam Hussein. They tried it, foolishly believing that if things went badly the United States would support them. But Bush the First was quite serious about his wishful thinking, and stood by as Saddam slaughtered them — the scapegoats of the hour — by the tens of thousands.

Similar wishful thinking is now at the heart of European — and probably a good deal of American — strategic thinking about the Iranian nuclear project. That it is a disgusting abdication of moral responsibility and a strategic blunder of potentially enormous magnitude is both obvious and irrelevant to the actual course of events.

I do not believe Israel will solve this problem for us, both because it is militarily very daunting and because successive Israeli governments have believed that Iran is too big a problem for them, and if it is to be solved, it will have to be solved by the United States and our allies. Whether that is true or not, I have long argued that Iran is the keystone of the terrorist edifice, and that we are doomed to confront it sooner or later, nuclear or not. Secretary of State Powell disagreed, and he was at pains recently to stress that American policy does not call for regime change in Tehran — even though the president repeatedly called for it. And the president is right; regime change is the best way to deal with the nuclear threat and the best way to advance our cause in the war against the terror masters. We have a real chance to remove the terror regime in Tehran without any military action, but rather through political means, by supporting the Iranian democratic opposition. According to the regime itself, upwards of 70 percent of Iranians oppose the regime, want freedom, and look to us for political support. I believe they, like the Yugoslavs who opposed Milosevic and like the Ukrainians now demonstrating for freedom, are entitled to the support of the free world.

Even if you believe that a nuclear Iran is inevitable, is it not infinitely better to have those atomic bombs in the hands of pro-Western Iranians, chosen by their own people, than in the grip of fanatical theocratic tyrants dedicated to the destruction of the Western satans?

And maybe it isn't inevitable. Faster, please.

We've all been reading the reports, and it sounds more and more like the routine of appeasement is bound to play itself out again. This is where we give the Mullahs what they want and long as they agree to certain conditions - cameras in the nuke sites, inspections... In return for which they get trade agreements and help with their economy.

What I keep waiting to hear from so many of the experts is what, exactly, happens when the Mullahs shut off the cameras, kick out the inspectors or cheat on their agreements. No one seems to have an answer to that.

The Europeans have made it clear once again that a military option will never be on the table, and if the EU, Russia and China have shown one thing it's that they are decidedly UNserious when it comes to consequences.

There's a problem with trade agreements and trade sanctions - both sides get something and both sides suffer when the deal-making breaks. That's what "trade" is. I give you something and in return you give me something. It's a two-way street. We're not talking here about a hand-out that could be cut off without consequence to the giver. Once the trading starts, it actually hurts both sides to stop it. And if there's another thing the EU, Russia and China have shown, it's that they will rarely if ever be serious about sanctions if it means any sacrifice on their own part - even if it means watching a fascist terror state ooze its way into the nuclear club.

All that will be accomplished by negotiating business deals with the Mullahs will be to strengthen their grip on power while watching them inecitably cheat on their agreements, become even more dangerous and betray the Iranian freedom lovers who look to us for help.

Sadly, I do wonder what choice the President has.

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