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Wednesday, August 18, 2004

Most of us have hailed as long-overdue good news the announcement of large troop reductions in Germany and South Korea. It's clear to most that new global realities no longer necessitate large standing ground forces in either nation. The New Mobility calls for widely flung bases ready to accept rapid redeployment as the trouble, or potential trouble presents. The Great Threat of Soviet invasion from the east cast off this mortal coil some years ago, and makes American soldiers sitting in bases in Central Europe look a bit dated. A few thousand American soldiers along the DMZ in Korea have served as little more than human shields for an increasingly ungrateful South Korean public and would be far better used redeployed for a counter-attack should the invasion ever come. And let's not be silly - an American first-strike invasion of the North isn't in the cards.

So it's with some incredulity I read this Op-Ed in today's Washington Post by Ronald D. Asmus which strikes me as a tad overwrought and just downright wrong-headed. Asmus couldn't be more put-out by the announced realignments, and parrots all the old lines about unilateralism and abandoning our allies - in their time of need?

Bear in mind that Mr. Asmus is identified as a senior transatlantic fellow at something called "the German Marshall Fund of the United States." According to their web site:

Founded in 1972 through a gift from Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides of the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has five offices in Europe: Belgrade, Berlin, Bratislava, Brussels, and Paris.

Something to keep in mind as the author's perspective while reading what otherwise may seem like a bit of an odd article. Let's have a look at a few of the key points.

Bush's Withdrawal From the World

Harry Truman must be turning over in his grave.

In Harry Truman's day, the troops in Europe and Asia were the expression of a muscular, recently bloody, foreign policy intended to enforce and inflict our will on unwilling populations. Truman certainly wouldn't have been keeping the boys in Europe as a glorified form of welfare for largely ungrateful populations. Not one second after the necessity was gone.

The planned withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe and Asia that President Bush announced this week, if allowed to stand, could lead to the demise of the United States' key alliances across the globe, including the one that Truman considered his greatest foreign policy accomplishment: NATO.

Unless one fantasizes that our current alliances are enforced through the emplacement of boots on the ground, this is by no means obvious. One could imagine that our bases and the effect that our troops have on the local economies buy us some clout in the places they are located, and indeed, that has been a long time argument in their favor. The fact is that events have shown that our presence in these places has bought us little friendship in the places they exist - in fact, it can be quite convincingly argued that the exact opposite has occurred. These troops, and the friction they cause among the local populations has caused more diplomatic trouble than they are worth. Further, they encourage local governments to show that they are not influenced by the American troop presence and so it could be argued that they strain alliances by influencing the locals to pursue what appears as an "independent course" so as to please the home audience.

The president proposes something that generations of U.S. diplomats and soldiers fought to prevent and that our adversaries sought unsuccessfully to achieve: radical reduction of U.S. political and military influence on the European and Asian continents.

That's because in Europe we beat that adversary, so the need for the troops is somewhat obviated. In Asia, other factors - mere realignment and repositioning as well as the reality of new types of weapons systems - make the move an obvious one.

The Bush message, delivered at a campaign rally, also smells of political opportunism.

Imagine that. An elected official who owes his job and his duty to The People doing something popular. Will the outrages never cease. Of course, this decision has the benefit of being both popular and correct. The best of both worlds.

Under pressure but unable to withdraw troops from Iraq, the president has instead reached for what his advisers hope is the next best thing politically -- a pledge to bring the boys home from Europe and Asia.

A decision that makes absolute sense. The troops in Iraq are engaged in real fighting that serves a purpose. All the more reason to take notice of and do something about the troops that are, by comparison only, sitting on their hands.

Now we get to the meat of it, and why the criticism of the plan falls apart as we watch. Read the substance of why the author thinks the redeployment is a bad idea. Let's go through it piece by piece:

Whether this is good or bad politics remains to be seen. But there is little doubt that it is bad strategy and bad diplomacy, for which the United States is likely to pay a heavy price. The reasons are fairly simple. In Europe after the Cold War, the United States decided to significantly reduce its former troop levels but to leave sufficient military forces on the ground to accomplish three objectives: help ensure that peace and stability on the continent would endure;

Check. Mission Accomplished. Does anyone seriously believe that full-time boots on the ground serve any purpose in keeping the Europeans off each other's throats?

have the capacity to support NATO and European Union expansion and project the communities of democracies eastward;

Check. Mission Accomplished. Again, what possible use do full-time boots on the ground in Germany serve to facilitate the eastward march of democracy? That hasn't been the case for some years.

and provide the political and military glue to enable our allies to reorient themselves militarily and prepare, together with the United States, to address new conflicts beyond the continent's borders.

Well, now that's been a bit problematic, hasn't it? They really haven't been much willing to do that, have they? Try selling that to the American public - "Our troops will protect German soil to free up German troops to do work abroad." Not only is that questionable on multiple levels as a strategy in the abstract, but it clearly hasn't occurred in reality. Instead, Germany has aligned itself in opposition to American foreign policy having nothing to do with its need for troops at home. If anything, the American troop presence has allowed countries like Germany an unrealistic "Peace Dividend" that they have simply pocketed. Enough is enough. Off the teat.

Each of these goals remains important.

Not.

Each will be undercut by the president's plan. With transatlantic relations badly frayed, Russia turning away from democracy and the United States facing the challenge of projecting stability from the Balkans to the Black Sea, Washington should be putting forward a plan to repair the transatlantic alliance, not ruin it.

I would argue that getting those troops realigned will be one of the best things to happen to "the alliance" in many a year.

In Asia the stakes are just as high and the challenges perhaps greater. There the United States faces the long-term challenge of managing the rise of China as a great power. North Korea's eventual collapse and the unification of Korea will raise the question of that country's future geopolitical orientation. And such seismic events will undoubtedly have a considerable impact on the evolution of Japan's role and orientation as well.

I would agree with all of that, but how a few thousand human shields on the DMZ help any of that the author is silent on. Here's a hint: They don't.

U.S. diplomats will have their hands full over the next decade or two trying to win the war on terrorism and help manage these multiple strategic transitions -- and will need every ounce of U.S. political and military leverage and muscle if they are to get it right. In an act of diplomatic hara-kiri, the president proposes to destroy one of the key pillars of U.S. influence just when this kind of leverage and influence is likely to be needed the most.

"Hara-kiri." Strong rhetoric that makes the piece difficult to take seriously.

[snip redundant paragraph that recycles all the old unilateral/multilateral puff that caricatures the Bush diplomatic efforts.]

Is there room for reconfiguring the U.S. military deployment plan overseas and modernizing it for a new era? Of course, there is. But such a review must also be part of a new strategic approach to alliance-building to confront the new threats we face. It must take into account our political and military requirements and the views of our allies. The president should have given a speech in Ohio on how he planned to repair the United States' alliances for the future -- and our new global military posture should reflect that goal as well. Why has no administration official come forward with any ideas on repairing the United States' alliance relationships.

An odd paragraph from a person who's base of argument come straight out of a time as old as Harry S. Truman. And need I state that it's not up to The President to justify himself, it's up to an ungrateful Europe to show that they are deserving of American largess - something American troops should never be representative of, but apparently some think they should be used to distribute.

Sen. John Kerry has recognized that the lesson of Sept. 11 is that the U.S. need for allies is going up, not down. He has pledged to make the reinvigoration of U.S. alliances a foreign policy priority. He has claimed that his election would allow for a "fresh start" and close a remarkably divisive chapter in relations with many of our close allies. There is little doubt that Kerry's election would be enthusiastically welcomed in both Europe and Asia. But it is time for the senator to take the next step and lay out a concrete plan for how his administration would reverse the damage done by President Bush and reinvigorate the United States' alliances to meet the dangers we face. Part of that plan should be to freeze and review the ill-conceived plan the president put forth this week in Ohio.

It wouldn't surprise me to find out that a Massachusetts Liberal like John Kerry would be willing to use our military as a pork-barrel plan for unmeritorious Europeans - particularly after repeatedly crowing in his campaign about never risking American lives on unnecessary missions.

Speaking of which, look at this story at CNN. What a coincidence that it and this op-ed which makes many of the same points should appear on the same day!

Kerry to challenge Bush troop plan

CINCINNATI, Ohio (AP) -- Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry is expected to argue Wednesday that President Bush might hinder the war on terror and other aspects of national security with his proposal to recall as many as 70,000 troops from Cold War-era bases in Europe and Asia.

In a speech prepared for the Veterans of Foreign Wars, Kerry contended that Bush's policy would dangerously reduce forces at a time when the nation is fighting the al-Qaeda terrorist network in 60 countries across the globe, according to a campaign statement.

Kerry said the redeployment would undermine relations with U.S. allies needed to help fight in Iraq and in the war on terror. It also would endanger national security as the United States is working to deter North Korea's nuclear program, he said..

1 Comment

Good job! This guy sounds like exactly the sort of mummified wonk that infests Foggy Bottom.

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