Friday, December 26, 2008
There isn't a military or political genius on the planet who could neatly resolve what's happening in Gaza. Hamas (itself, its own fault -- granted, also with help from abroad) has created a brutal reality between the parties. The reality of their goals and the nature of the group itself have created a situation that will, by nature and historical example, lead necessarily to brutal results if the problem is to be solved. Our modern web of international institutions (in the broadest sense: media, law, international forums, diplomacy, etc...) have created shackles that no leader who games out the consequences of any action can fully break out of.
Just as no Israeli (or any democratic) leader can ignore the violence emanating from the strip, no democratic leader can, as a practical matter, fully take the actions necessary to end it. The shackles have, by mandating brutal solutions no accountable leader can face, denied that leader the ability to end it. Instead, a situation has been created where the violence grinds on and evil flourishes.
So Israel is gearing up for a response to the massive barrage of rockets and mortars from a reprobate population, and I can hear the groaning already that Olmert and Livni are still the ones in charge given their history. For one, let's hope they learned some lessons, for another, I'm not sure what anyone would be able to do except marginally better, given the reality they have to deal with. Here are a few links:
Lisa Goldman: Hamas Goads Israel Into War
The shaky six-month Egypt-brokered truce between Israel and Gaza ended last Friday with exchanges of fire across the border. While diplomats scrambled to negotiate an extension of the ceasefire, Islamic Jihad, a militant organization that Hamas claims it does not control, celebrated the end of the truce by pounding Sderot and the western Negev with 'round the clock barrages of Qassams. They also launched Grad rockets at Ashkelon, which is usually out of Qassam range. The barrages escalated as this week wore on, with 88 landing in Sderot and the surrounding communities over a one-day period on Wednesday. The IDF, meanwhile, killed three Palestinians who were laying explosives on the Gaza-Israel fence.
Confined to their homes and fearful, the residents of Sderot and the western Negev are having a particularly gloomy Hanukkah. For many, the situation has become intolerable. Two out of three children in Sderot suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder...
WaPo: Israel Completes Preparations for Gaza Offensive Amid Continuing Rocket Fire
Israel moved closer to invading the Gaza Strip, saying Thursday that it had wrapped up preparations for a broad offensive after Palestinian fighters fired about 100 rockets and mortar shells across the border in two days...
Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff: Stewing in their own juices
It took less than a week for Israel's decision makers to change their minds entirely. Exactly the same people - who last week presented convincing reasons to justify continuing the policy of restraint in the Gaza Strip, and expressed the fear that a large-scale military action would result in an expected imbroglio - have now changed their tune completely. It is doubtful whether even Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's lightning visit yesterday with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo will lead to a turnabout at this point. Israel is about to retaliate fiercely to Hamas' attacks. The situation will not necessarily develop into an all-out war (at the moment, neither side appears to be interested in that), but the coming days will, so it seems, mark the end to restraint...
PM Olmert Interviewed on Al Arabiya. Video.
Harry's Place: Israel targets Palestinians... with humanitarian aid
Yourish: Hamas rockets kill their own; Israeli hospitals treat wounded Gazans
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Events are taking their course (previous: Unnatural Events in Gaza). Dave in Israel is live-blogging. The Flea notes an incongruous headline (And we need to care what these people think. It doesn't matter what you do, they make up their... Read More
Israel under Olmerde and Ehud Barack Obama (sorry but couldn't resist the comparison) will screw up the Gaza response and leave Hamass more powerful afterwards, just like they screwed up the Lebanese counterattack. I have no faith in the IDF anymore. They have become victims of the principle that states anything that will go wrong will do so in the worst possible way at the worst possible time (maybe that's the Republican party principle as well?)
sorry, it's anything that can go wrong...
pardon the double post.
Please be wary of posting based on Lisa Goldman's reports. She has shown herself to be agenda-driven and unreliable in previous situations.