Tuesday, March 18, 2008
This is just a quick link to follow -- an "aside." These are links to interesting things that, for one reason or another, I didn't place into a full posting. Go to the blog index for a regular listing of posts.
Sierra Environmental Studies Foundation: Cooler Temps -- Dalton Minimum Returns [PDF] - 'Global warming hype could be masking a more immediate climate problem. A problem that could have a larger impact on our lives than global warming over the next 20 years. Solar scientists have predicted the return of the Dalton Minimum, which was the result of two low intensity sunspot cycles lasting over 28 years. During the early 1800s the average temperatures in the Mid West were 2-4 degrees cooler than the 20th Century average. In many areas it was much dryer than average, especially along the California coast. We have already started to see some ocean cooling as we leave sunspot cycle 23 and enter sunspot cycle 24, the first of the two predicted minimum cycles...'
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Something unusual is happening with our sun. While it's not unprecedented to see solar cycles of 13 years, it is more unusual than the norm. It is also unusual to see solar flux levels so consistently low for so long. Cycle 23 is now 12+ years long and still going strong (as evidenced by the three most recent large sunspot groups of #23). Signs of cycle 24 have been weak at best. The second most recent 24 spot would not have even been recognized 100 years ago.
If #24 follows precedent, we are still 6-18 months preceding a full demonstration of cycle 24. Furthermore cycle #23 is an odd numbered cycle-it should have been shorter than cycle #22;it obviously is not. Cycle 24 should have started 12-18 months ago; it didn't. The sun remains blank today (04/19/2008). Solar flux is still incredibly low at 69.2. The sun is exceptionally quiet, and we still may not be at dead minimum. What does all this say? It says that #23 is not statistically among the normal cycles observed over the last 250 years, and it fits better with the unusual cycles of the Maunder and Dalton style miniumums from start to finish. Only time will tell whether we will see such historic conditions with our current sun.
Almost 3 months later, and the Sun is still as quiet as a mouse. In fact, the numbers are in steady decline, coming in waves of 3, each new high promising but leading to sucessive lower highs. Cycle 23 refuses to end. If this keeps up, the nuclear fuel at the core may have been interrupted, and we are in for a nasty expansion of solar diameter.
The Twilight Zone addressed this many years ago in The Midnight Sun.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Midnight_Sun
As of today, 9-6-08, our sun is still sleeping. The spot appeared on Dec. 11, 2007 made NASA to announce the beginning of cycle 24 because of its opposite magnetic field to cycle 23. Sadly enought out sun gone quiet again after that. If that was a true 24 cycle spot and went blank again, does it mean that cycle 24 is an empty one like those in the Maunder Minimum? Can someone answer my question/ or give me some comment?
Any updates to the cycle on this site? I'm under the impression we are still waiting for 24?