Tuesday, March 18, 2008
This is just a quick link to follow -- an "aside." These are links to interesting things that, for one reason or another, I didn't place into a full posting. Click the link to visit the full article. Go to the blog index for a regular listing of posts.
Sierra Environmental Studies Foundation: Cooler Temps -- Dalton Minimum Returns [PDF] - 'Global warming hype could be masking a more immediate climate problem. A problem that could have a larger impact on our lives than global warming over the next 20 years. Solar scientists have predicted the return of the Dalton Minimum, which was the result of two low intensity sunspot cycles lasting over 28 years. During the early 1800s the average temperatures in the Mid West were 2-4 degrees cooler than the 20th Century average. In many areas it was much dryer than average, especially along the California coast. We have already started to see some ocean cooling as we leave sunspot cycle 23 and enter sunspot cycle 24, the first of the two predicted minimum cycles...'
Something unusual is happening with our sun. While it's not unprecedented to see solar cycles of 13 years, it is more unusual than the norm. It is also unusual to see solar flux levels so consistently low for so long. Cycle 23 is now 12+ years long and still going strong (as evidenced by the three most recent large sunspot groups of #23). Signs of cycle 24 have been weak at best. The second most recent 24 spot would not have even been recognized 100 years ago.
If #24 follows precedent, we are still 6-18 months preceding a full demonstration of cycle 24. Furthermore cycle #23 is an odd numbered cycle-it should have been shorter than cycle #22;it obviously is not. Cycle 24 should have started 12-18 months ago; it didn't. The sun remains blank today (04/19/2008). Solar flux is still incredibly low at 69.2. The sun is exceptionally quiet, and we still may not be at dead minimum. What does all this say? It says that #23 is not statistically among the normal cycles observed over the last 250 years, and it fits better with the unusual cycles of the Maunder and Dalton style miniumums from start to finish. Only time will tell whether we will see such historic conditions with our current sun.
Almost 3 months later, and the Sun is still as quiet as a mouse. In fact, the numbers are in steady decline, coming in waves of 3, each new high promising but leading to sucessive lower highs. Cycle 23 refuses to end. If this keeps up, the nuclear fuel at the core may have been interrupted, and we are in for a nasty expansion of solar diameter.
The Twilight Zone addressed this many years ago in The Midnight Sun.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Midnight_Sun
As of today, 9-6-08, our sun is still sleeping. The spot appeared on Dec. 11, 2007 made NASA to announce the beginning of cycle 24 because of its opposite magnetic field to cycle 23. Sadly enought out sun gone quiet again after that. If that was a true 24 cycle spot and went blank again, does it mean that cycle 24 is an empty one like those in the Maunder Minimum? Can someone answer my question/ or give me some comment?
Any updates to the cycle on this site? I'm under the impression we are still waiting for 24?
I'm waiting too, now January 2009. I keep thinking someone must be commenting on this. I understand that global warming is no longer the lingo, it's "global climate change" meaning the cooling is getting people nervous, I suppose.
21st january 2009
I had already noticed that the last two summers were quite cool and so were winters. But this year it seems that winter is back to strong again. Could this be related to the unusually low solar activity it has been registered so far for this new cycle?. Are we approaching a new little ice age? Could all our worries about global warming be just fantasies, since what we are heading is global cooling?
14-apr-2009, almost a year after the first comment and the solar minimum continues to reach new depths. We have seen over 600 sun spotless days so far. This trend should continue long enough for this solar minimum to surpass Cycle 10 transition which took 654 days.
That will assure this transition of becoming the fifth longest in the last 160 years, and maybe higher thereafter.
Well I'm back. One year to date (April 19, 2009). I'm no prophet, just an observer of the sun and amateur scientist. We are now seeing the historic conditions of our sun that I spoke of last year.
Here are the facts:
Since January 1, 2009, there have been 96 spotless days which means that we have been spotless 87% so far this year compared with 73% of all days last year (266 of 366 days were spotless in 2008). We have had #23 spots again in 2009 which indicates we are no where near #24 yet.
We are now 607 days spotless since 2004 and the typical minimum renders 485 spotless days. We are now in the 1913 solar cycle territory and headed for cycle 1-4 territory.
All indicators of solar activity continue to wane. The planetary index continues to fall further in 2009, the number of spotless days so far surpass 2008 in percentage, the solar flux remains flatlined and the sunspot number as we speak is at 0.
All that needs to happen to push solar minimum to January 2010 is to hold the sunspot number to 3.2 for April and 3.4 for March. Do I think we will make it? Yes I do and maybe even farther out. This would indeed be historical.
There is some disagreement between solar physicists as to how much solar grand minimas affect climate and how. There is good evidence to show grand minimas do have a cooling effect on climate when one looks at overlays of solar activity and cool periods in our history. Just as then we are seeing cooling now. I do believe the cooling will continue and be more pronounced based on eveidence of the Maunder and Dalton minimas.
So, where are we heading? I believe towards another uneventful year with the sun. Cycle 24 will come. It could be barely noticeable or somewhat noticeable, but it will be weak. Keep watching!
Michael,
Reversed magnetivity sunspots do usually indicate the birth of a new cycle although there can be oddities in magnetivity within cycles. I do believe we have had an official reversal due to number of unambiguous, short lived #24 sunspots. The fact that there have been so few, and many undetectable without a magnetogramic view, indicates a very weak cycle 24 and maybe a weaker cycle 25. The fact that there has been some 23 spots recently indicates that we may not yet be at minimum.
Cycles continued during the Maunder and Dalton minimas but were abnormally weak. I think this is what we are beginning to see now. According to historical cycles we should expect at least two weak cycles ahead. How pronounced is still to be seen. I personally agree with David Archibald that we are in for some very weak cycles, and depending on their weakness, a very different climate than that we are used to. Please google David Acrhibald, solar physicist, on recent comments. I'm not a solar physicist, but I can read the signs.
Doug
Stephen,
You can go to NOAA Space Weather, but they have been so utterly wrong in their predictions of the progression of cycle 24 that I wouldn't bet on what they say, athough they have been making consessionary statements of late.
Instead, follow David Arcibald--he's got a pretty good track record. Cycle 24 has begun, maybe as early as 2007?? But what does that say about the cycle? We are at 2009 and very few spots. This is not a cycle among the normal. Historical records indicate we are right on time for a grand minima.
Well, Aug 29 and it is beginning to look like we are not even at minimum yet. Seems like we are in unforecastable territory, too unususual and almost without precedent.
Sept 10th and still nothing, the last trend of 51 days ended by a tiny speck on the sun.
This is not just an inconvenience to me. It's life or death!
I don't live in a safe latitude. I'm at 52.6N, more then far enough north to be in serious trouble.
The effect on summer and fall is minimal, in fact were still getting record summer and fall temps at least somewhere. Actually it seems to be getting hotter in Summer, not not at the same rate winters are getting colder
The real change is in winter and spring.
the last 3 winters have been bitterly cold, but not yet rock bottom. We have had an major increase in winter storms.
The last 3 springs have been plagued by cold heavy snow in some cases breaking branches that are in leaf!
Now were in a major drought, and signs point to it getting much worse.
I first posted two years ago (the first post) when I said we were in unusual times with regard to observed solar history. Cycle 24 is officially here now. Look at SOHO today (4/9/2010). What do you see? An almost blank sun. We had our first geomagnetic storm in six years this week. Sunspot numbers are still unusually low, and the sunspots have been weak.
I still hold to my original prediction--that we will remain in Dalton Minimum territory. Solar cycle 25 will be even weaker. I predict the average sunspot number for solar cycle 24 to be 50 - 60. For reasons not well understood but well observed, this will mean colder temps well into the middle of this century. La Ninos will be more prevalent and the PDO will remain negative for at least two decades.
It's a cycle, a natural cycle that has repeated itself for eons. Watch the media discussion move from global warming to a mini ice age. Sadly, true science will be ignored and the cooling will be blamed on AGW. Man caused the earth to warm which in turn caused the earth to cool. Do you really believe that? Stay tuned and watch the sun.
Here is a lecture on Global Warming from Professor Serling...
"Midnight Sun"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kjd3VJ1SYM