Jonathan Stevenson: What's Going On in Somalia? A guide to the latest terror-war front. - 'Though 98% Muslim and long without a functioning government, southern Somalia has not, so far, ripened into the fully fledged terrorist threat that many have feared it would. This week, however, as Ethiopia engaged Islamist Somali militiamen, Somalia became the site of a nascent regional war. The primary combatants are Somalia's secular Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which is internationally recognized and politically supported by the U.S., and the Islamist "Islamic Courts Union" that holds sway on the ground. They are backed militarily by two fierce rivals, Ethiopia and Eritrea, respectively. The military balance appears indeterminate. Ethiopia has deployed 15,000 to 20,000 troops in Somalia. Eritrea has provided arms to the Islamic Courts militias and sent only about 2,000 troops to support them; but the Islamic Courts hold more territory than the TFG and have greater indigenous assets and popular support. Even if Somalia does not become a terrorist redoubt, it could become a potent fount of regional geopolitical instability and perhaps the next "field of jihad" unless diplomatic attention is rallied to rescue the situation...'