Hezbollah and its allies in the March 8 coalition failed to win a majority of seats in the 2009 Lebanese parliamentary elections, losing to the incumbent March 14 coalition. The elections give the March 14 coalition an invigorated mandate, and are a vote of confidence in March 14's vision for Lebanon's future regional and international relations.

However, the March 8 coalition's strong electoral showing (it controls 45% of parliamentary seats -- 57 seats out of a total of 128), the nature of Lebanon's sectarian political system, and Hezbollah's weapons and previous willingness to violently undermine the government mean that Hezbollah will most likely be included in a national unity government. The debate over the future governance of Lebanon is far from over.

March 14's victory puts to rest myths and theories propagated in the March 8 and Syrian press in the years after 2005 parliamentary elections. There is now no doubt that March 14 enjoys nationwide support across sectarian, regional, and class boundaries. Voters do not appear to believe that the 2005-2008 March 14 government was too extreme, too pro-Western, too pro-Sunni/Saudi, or pro-Israel. It also indicates that voters reject a return of Syrian influence in Lebanon and a rejection of closer relations with Iran.

In a televised speech on Monday, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah conceded the March 8 coalition's defeat, but said that Hezbollah would not tolerate any discussion of disarming it and bringing the Iranian backed party under the rule of the Lebanese government. The soon to be formed March 14 government will likely have to concede Hezbollah's "right" to "defend" the country against Israel, thus placing the Lebanese government in a precarious position in the event of a war with Israel...